2026 · Week 6 · October 19, 2026 · NFL
Week 6 scorecard
The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff —
the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the
actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing
here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full
season track record →
Week summary
144
Projections graded
9 voided · 0 pending
55%
Beat naive baseline
on 141 comparable rows
5–3
Components vs naive
MAE win/loss by stat
—
Unit-edge record
biggest-mismatch calls
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|
| Pass yds | 16 | 55.11 | 51.29 | trails naive |
| Pass TD | 16 | 1.10 | 1.21 | beats naive |
| INT | 12 | 0.60 | 0.59 | trails naive |
| Rush yds | 16 | 23.56 | 29.34 | beats naive |
| Rush TD | 12 | 0.75 | 0.75 | beats naive |
| Rec | 20 | 1.59 | 1.61 | beats naive |
| Rec yds | 32 | 16.98 | 15.78 | trails naive |
| Rec TD | 20 | 0.44 | 0.47 | beats naive |
9 row(s) voided (adjusted for availability or replaced by a starter change before kickoff) — shown struck-through, excluded from every number above.
MAE = mean absolute error vs the actual box score, in each stat’s own units. Naive = the player’s prior-season per-game average.
Seahawks at BroncosThu Oct 15, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass yds | 205 | 235 | 280 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec | 6.4 | 6.8 | 12 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec yds | 85 | 100 | 135 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR · Rec TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 15 |
| AJ Barner | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 235 | 105 |
| Bo Nix | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 30 | 15 |
| Evan Engram | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 75 | 40 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Chargers at ChiefsSun Oct 18, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass yds | 190 | 230 | 205 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Pass TD | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 35 | 25 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 55 | 20 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 20 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec | 3.4 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec yds | 50 | 50 | 15 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass yds | 245 | 255 | 270 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes II | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 50 | 55 |
| Travis Kelce | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 65 | 130 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 10 |
Texans at JaguarsSun Oct 18, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 220 | 310 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.3 | 3 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 45 | 35 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | RB · Rush yds | 35 | 40 | adjusted pre-game |
| David Montgomery | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | adjusted pre-game |
| David Montgomery | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | adjusted pre-game |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · Pass yds | 245 | 235 | 305 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · Pass TD | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Brenton Strange | TE · Rec | 3.6 | 3.7 | 5 |
| Brenton Strange | TE · Rec yds | 45 | 40 | 45 |
| Brenton Strange | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rush yds | 45 | 20 | 40 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 5 | 50 |
| Nico Collins | WR · Rec | 5 | 4.6 | 3 |
| Nico Collins | WR · Rec yds | 75 | 70 | 75 |
| Nico Collins | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
Cowboys at PackersSun Oct 18, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass yds | 265 | 270 | 260 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec | 3.1 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 35 | 15 |
| Jake Ferguson | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 75 | 40 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 230 | 275 |
| Jordan Love | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec | 3.9 | 4 | 5 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 60 | 35 |
| Tucker Kraft | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 60 | 65 |
| Christian Watson | WR · Rec TD | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0 |
Cardinals at RamsSun Oct 18, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 240 | 220 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec yds | 65 | 75 | 55 |
| Trey McBride | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rush yds | 50 | — | adjusted pre-game |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rush TD | 0.1 | — | adjusted pre-game |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB · Rec yds | 10 | — | adjusted pre-game |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass yds | 305 | 280 | 220 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · Pass TD | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 70 | 50 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | RB · Rec yds | 25 | 20 | 15 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec | 7.8 | 8.1 | 6 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec yds | 110 | 110 | 80 |
| Puka Nacua | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR · Rec | 6 | 4.6 | 4 |
| Michael Wilson | WR · Rec yds | 75 | 60 | 30 |
| Michael Wilson | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
Commanders at NinersMon Oct 19, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Jayden Daniels | QB · Pass yds | 180 | 180 | 300 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1.1 | 2 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB · Rush yds | 40 | 40 | 10 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE · Rec | 3.1 | 3.3 | 7 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 35 | 70 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB · Rush yds | 45 | 45 | DNP |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | DNP |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | DNP |
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 235 | 265 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · Pass TD | 2.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | QB · INT | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec yds | 60 | 60 | 70 |
| George Kittle | TE · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | 65 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB · Rec yds | 30 | 55 | 55 |
Ravens at BrownsSun Oct 18, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass yds | 145 | 85 | 165 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Pass TD | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Tyler Huntley | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | 30 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush yds | 95 | 95 | 60 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rush TD | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec | 3 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 25 | 5 |
| Mark Andrews | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB · Pass yds | 205 | — | 165 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | — | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB · Rush yds | 25 | — | 30 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE · Rec | 3.8 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 45 | 10 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB · Rush yds | 45 | 60 | DNP |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0.5 | DNP |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 10 | DNP |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 195 | adjusted pre-game |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 1.6 | adjusted pre-game |
| Lamar Jackson | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.5 | adjusted pre-game |
Bears at FalconsSun Oct 18, 2026
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|
| Tyson Bagent | QB · Pass yds | 140 | 25 | DNP |
| Tyson Bagent | QB · Pass TD | 0.4 | 0 | DNP |
| Tyson Bagent | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0 | DNP |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 70 | 45 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.6 | 2 |
| D'Andre Swift | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 25 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec | 4.3 | 4.1 | 6 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 65 |
| Colston Loveland | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 220 | 225 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB · INT | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush yds | 100 | 85 | 60 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rush TD | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB · Rec yds | 35 | 50 | -10 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE · Rec | 4 | 5.2 | 5 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | 60 |
| Kyle Pitts | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2 |
Grades: green within 20% (counts:
within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit),
red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr
avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game
average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep.
Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank
actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted
rows are voided, never re-graded.