2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12 – Sep 13

Week 2 big-game preview

Not a pick — a production forecast. Our ratings carry no win/loss input, so there is no spread here. What there is: each side's pass and rush units measured against the other's, and the stars' stat lines projected with the same opponent adjustment the engine uses to rate the games themselves. Numbers are the adjusted projection — season form shifted by this specific opponent.

Ohio St. at TexasSat Sep 12, 11:30PM UTC
Ohio St.'s 100th-percentile passing attack meets Texas's 96th-percentile pass defense — Jeremiah Smith projects for 7.5 rec.
Ohio St. Pass O → Texas Pass D
offense1640 · 100th pct
defense1424 · 96th pct
edge +216 offense★ biggest edge
Ohio St. Rush O → Texas Rush D
offense1602 · 99th pct
defense1541 · 98th pct
edge +61 offense
Texas Pass O → Ohio St. Pass D
offense1494 · 95th pct
defense1506 · 100th pct
edge -12 defense
Texas Rush O → Ohio St. Rush D
offense1489 · 91st pct
defense1622 · 100th pct
edge -133 defense

Ohio St.

Jeremiah SmithWR · rtg 1460
7.5 Rec140 Rec yds1.8 Rec TD
Bo JacksonRB · rtg 1394
75 Rush yds0.8 Rush TD10 Rec yds
Devin McCuinWR · rtg 1304
5.7 Rec90 Rec yds0.9 Rec TD

Texas

Arch ManningQB · rtg 1389
290 Pass yds3.7 Pass TD1.3 INT
Hollywood SmothersRB · rtg 1368
60 Rush yds0 Rush TD25 Rec yds
Ryan WingoWR · rtg 1322
6.6 Rec115 Rec yds0.9 Rec TD
Oklahoma at MichiganSat Sep 12, 4:00PM UTC
Michigan's 99th-percentile rush defense looks to smother Oklahoma's 90th-percentile running game — John Mateer projects for 210 pass yds.
Oklahoma Pass O → Michigan Pass D
offense1448 · 94th pct
defense1479 · 98th pct
edge -31 defense
Oklahoma Rush O → Michigan Rush D
offense1466 · 90th pct
defense1568 · 99th pct
edge -102 defense★ biggest edge
Michigan Pass O → Oklahoma Pass D
offense1306 · 64th pct
defense1398 · 95th pct
edge -92 defense
Michigan Rush O → Oklahoma Rush D
offense1562 · 96th pct
defense1530 · 97th pct
edge +32 offense

Oklahoma

John MateerQB · rtg 1401
210 Pass yds2.8 Pass TD0.2 INT
Tory BlaylockRB · rtg 1302
35 Rush yds0.3 Rush TD5 Rec yds
Xavier RobinsonRB · rtg 1317
20 Rush yds0 Rush TD0 Rec yds

Michigan

Bryce UnderwoodQB · rtg 1346
160 Pass yds0.8 Pass TD40 Rush yds
Jordan MarshallRB · rtg 1369
40 Rush yds0 Rush TD15 Rec yds
JJ BuchananWR · rtg 1320
5.8 Rec120 Rec yds0.9 Rec TD
Iowa St. at IowaSat Sep 12, 11:30PM UTC
Iowa St.'s 95th-percentile pass defense looks to smother Iowa's 28th-percentile passing game — Hank Brown projects for 125 pass yds.
Iowa St. Pass O → Iowa Pass D
offense1432 · 90th pct
defense1485 · 99th pct
edge -53 defense
Iowa St. Rush O → Iowa Rush D
offense1400 · 78th pct
defense1560 · 99th pct
edge -160 defense
Iowa Pass O → Iowa St. Pass D
offense1154 · 28th pct
defense1422 · 95th pct
edge -268 defense★ biggest edge
Iowa Rush O → Iowa St. Rush D
offense1457 · 89th pct
defense1413 · 89th pct
edge +44 offense

Iowa St.

Jaylen RaynorQB · rtg 1334
155 Pass yds1.5 Pass TD25 Rush yds
Aiden FloraRB · rtg 1269
35 Rush yds0.8 Rush TD0 Rec yds
Cameron PettawayRB · rtg 1256
0 Rush yds0 Rush TD0 Rec yds

Iowa

Hank BrownQB · rtg 1287
125 Pass yds0.9 Pass TD0.1 INT
Tony DiazWR · rtg 1322
6.9 Rec80 Rec yds1 Rec TD
Kamari MoultonRB · rtg 1385
180 Rush yds1.9 Rush TD0 Rec yds
Arkansas at UtahSun Sep 13, 2:15AM UTC
Utah's 94th-percentile running attack meets Arkansas's 80th-percentile rush defense — Devon Dampier projects for 170 pass yds.
Arkansas Pass O → Utah Pass D
offense1434 · 92nd pct
defense1442 · 97th pct
edge -8 defense
Arkansas Rush O → Utah Rush D
offense1508 · 92nd pct
defense1432 · 90th pct
edge +76 offense
Utah Pass O → Arkansas Pass D
offense1342 · 75th pct
defense1318 · 79th pct
edge +24 offense
Utah Rush O → Arkansas Rush D
offense1532 · 94th pct
defense1358 · 80th pct
edge +174 offense★ biggest edge

Arkansas

KJ JacksonQB · rtg 1318
245 Pass yds2.6 Pass TD1.4 INT
O'Mega BlakeWR · rtg 1331
4.7 Rec60 Rec yds0.4 Rec TD
Chris MarshallWR · rtg 1300
6.6 Rec70 Rec yds0 Rec TD

Utah

Devon DampierQB · rtg 1394
170 Pass yds2.9 Pass TD25 Rush yds
Wayshawn ParkerRB · rtg 1359
70 Rush yds0.9 Rush TD20 Rec yds
LaMarcus BellRB · rtg 1323
85 Rush yds0.9 Rush TD0 Rec yds
Arizona St. at Texas A&MSat Sep 12, 4:00PM UTC
Texas A&M's 93rd-percentile running attack meets Arizona St.'s 87th-percentile rush defense — Marcel Reed projects for 220 pass yds.
Arizona St. Pass O → Texas A&M Pass D
offense1394 · 85th pct
defense1466 · 97th pct
edge -72 defense
Arizona St. Rush O → Texas A&M Rush D
offense1422 · 81st pct
defense1453 · 92nd pct
edge -31 defense
Texas A&M Pass O → Arizona St. Pass D
offense1452 · 94th pct
defense1346 · 86th pct
edge +106 offense
Texas A&M Rush O → Arizona St. Rush D
offense1521 · 93rd pct
defense1400 · 87th pct
edge +121 offense★ biggest edge

Arizona St.

Cutter BoleyQB · rtg 1308
370 Pass yds5.7 Pass TD0.3 INT
Omarion MillerWR · rtg 1372
7.6 Rec95 Rec yds0.9 Rec TD
Reed HarrisWR · rtg 1319
5.6 Rec130 Rec yds1.9 Rec TD

Texas A&M

Marcel ReedQB · rtg 1408
220 Pass yds1.8 Pass TD0.2 INT
Mario CraverWR · rtg 1346
4.8 Rec35 Rec yds0.9 Rec TD
Rueben Owens IIRB · rtg 1290
75 Rush yds0 Rush TD25 Rec yds
Alabama at KentuckySat Sep 12, 7:30PM UTC
Alabama's 98th-percentile pass defense looks to smother Kentucky's 59th-percentile passing game — Kenny Minchey projects for 285 pass yds.
Alabama Pass O → Kentucky Pass D
offense1560 · 98th pct
defense1378 · 92nd pct
edge +182 offense
Alabama Rush O → Kentucky Rush D
offense1447 · 86th pct
defense1433 · 91st pct
edge +14 offense
Kentucky Pass O → Alabama Pass D
offense1282 · 59th pct
defense1484 · 98th pct
edge -202 defense★ biggest edge
Kentucky Rush O → Alabama Rush D
offense1398 · 78th pct
defense1526 · 97th pct
edge -128 defense

Alabama

Keelon RussellQB · rtg 1316
245 Pass yds0 Pass TD85 Rush yds
Ryan Coleman-WilliamsWR · rtg 1295
4.8 Rec125 Rec yds0 Rec TD
Keelon RussellRB · rtg 1297
85 Rush yds1 Rush TD0 Rec yds

Kentucky

Kenny MincheyQB · rtg 1307
285 Pass yds3.7 Pass TD0.3 INT
CJ BaxterRB · rtg 1300
40 Rush yds1.9 Rush TD0 Rec yds
Jason PattersonRB · rtg 1264
70 Rush yds0 Rush TD15 Rec yds
Oregon at Oklahoma St.Sat Sep 12, 4:00PM UTC
Oregon's 99th-percentile passing attack meets Oklahoma St.'s 65th-percentile pass defense — Dante Moore projects for 380 pass yds.
Oregon Pass O → Oklahoma St. Pass D
offense1600 · 99th pct
defense1252 · 65th pct
edge +348 offense★ biggest edge
Oregon Rush O → Oklahoma St. Rush D
offense1565 · 97th pct
defense1322 · 73rd pct
edge +243 offense
Oklahoma St. Pass O → Oregon Pass D
offense1364 · 82nd pct
defense1500 · 100th pct
edge -136 defense
Oklahoma St. Rush O → Oregon Rush D
offense1308 · 59th pct
defense1484 · 94th pct
edge -176 defense

Oregon

Dante MooreQB · rtg 1414
380 Pass yds3.1 Pass TD0 INT
Jordon DavisonRB · rtg 1368
90 Rush yds1 Rush TD0 Rec yds
Dierre Hill Jr.RB · rtg 1332
35 Rush yds0 Rush TD5 Rec yds

Oklahoma St.

Drew MestemakerQB · rtg 1369
225 Pass yds0.7 Pass TD2.3 INT
Caleb HawkinsRB · rtg 1367
75 Rush yds0 Rush TD25 Rec yds
Wyatt YoungWR · rtg 1288
7.6 Rec75 Rec yds0 Rec TD

Unit elos are each team's most recent pre-game rating; percentiles rank them against every FBS unit active this season. Player projections use matchup_project's engine-consistent adjusted form (season average plus the inversion-derived opponent delta), the variant that beats the season-average and league-median baselines in backtest. Stars are chosen by current rating and in-team usage share. Forecasts, not guarantees — we grade them next week.