The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass yds | 12 | 69.84 | 73.45 | beats naive |
| Pass TD | 12 | 0.99 | 1.10 | beats naive |
| INT | 6 | 0.63 | 0.45 | trails naive |
| Rush yds | 22 | 28.38 | 35.20 | beats naive |
| Rush TD | 16 | 0.80 | 0.91 | beats naive |
| Rec | 14 | 2.17 | 2.41 | beats naive |
| Rec yds | 30 | 20.68 | 23.38 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 14 | 0.65 | 0.66 | beats naive |
Biggest pre-game edge: Oklahoma rush offense vs Georgia rush defense — edge -250 defense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Mateer | QB · Pass yds | 210 | 240 | 230 |
| John Mateer | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2 |
| John Mateer | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 35 | 5 |
| Rocky Beers | TE · Rec | 3 | 2.6 | 8 |
| Rocky Beers | TE · Rec yds | 40 | 30 | 85 |
| Rocky Beers | TE · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Isaiah Sategna III | WR · Rec | 4.7 | 5.2 | 8 |
| Isaiah Sategna III | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 75 | 80 |
| Isaiah Sategna III | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Gunner Stockton | QB · Pass yds | 195 | 205 | 170 |
| Gunner Stockton | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1 |
| Gunner Stockton | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 35 | 0 |
| Nate Frazier | RB · Rush yds | 65 | 70 | DNP |
| Nate Frazier | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | DNP |
| Nate Frazier | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | DNP |
| Chauncey Bowens | RB · Rush yds | 40 | 45 | 25 |
| Chauncey Bowens | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Chauncey Bowens | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 5 | 25 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Texas pass offense vs Tennessee pass defense — edge +121 offense edge miss
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arch Manning | QB · Pass yds | 240 | 245 | 200 |
| Arch Manning | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 2 | 0 |
| Arch Manning | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rush yds | 75 | 85 | DNP |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | DNP |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | DNP |
| Emaree Winston | TE · Rec | 2.2 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Emaree Winston | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 10 | 5 |
| Emaree Winston | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Faizon Brandon | QB · Pass yds | 170 | — | 145 |
| Faizon Brandon | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | — | 1 |
| Faizon Brandon | QB · Rush yds | 20 | — | 0 |
| DeSean Bishop | RB · Rush yds | 80 | 85 | 35 |
| DeSean Bishop | RB · Rush TD | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0 |
| DeSean Bishop | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Mike Matthews | WR · Rec | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4 |
| Mike Matthews | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 65 | 70 |
| Mike Matthews | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Oregon pass offense vs Southern California pass defense — edge +261 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Moore | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 240 | 75 |
| Dante Moore | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 2 | 0 |
| Dante Moore | QB · INT | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jordon Davison | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 50 | 65 |
| Jordon Davison | RB · Rush TD | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1 |
| Jordon Davison | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Dierre Hill Jr. | RB · Rush yds | 45 | 45 | 65 |
| Dierre Hill Jr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2 |
| Dierre Hill Jr. | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 105 |
| Jayden Maiava | QB · Pass yds | 255 | 285 | 325 |
| Jayden Maiava | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Jayden Maiava | QB · INT | 1 | 0.8 | 1 |
| King Miller | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 75 | 75 |
| King Miller | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| King Miller | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 10 |
| Mark Bowman | TE · Rec | 3.2 | — | 6 |
| Mark Bowman | TE · Rec yds | 30 | — | 45 |
| Mark Bowman | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | — | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Texas A&M pass offense vs LSU pass defense — edge +62 offense edge miss
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Reed | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 245 | 105 |
| Marcel Reed | QB · Pass TD | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Marcel Reed | QB · Rush yds | 30 | 40 | -15 |
| Mario Craver | WR · Rec | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3 |
| Mario Craver | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 75 | 30 |
| Mario Craver | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Rueben Owens II | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 55 | 60 |
| Rueben Owens II | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Rueben Owens II | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Sam Leavitt | QB · Pass yds | 220 | 235 | 310 |
| Sam Leavitt | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2 |
| Sam Leavitt | QB · Rush yds | 40 | 45 | 20 |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE · Rec | 3.9 | 4.1 | DNP |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE · Rec yds | 50 | 55 | DNP |
| Trey'Dez Green | TE · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.9 | DNP |
| Dilin Jones | RB · Rush yds | 60 | 45 | 65 |
| Dilin Jones | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Dilin Jones | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 5 | 20 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Ohio St. pass offense vs Illinois pass defense — edge +322 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katin Houser | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 275 | 265 |
| Katin Houser | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Katin Houser | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kaden Feagin | RB · Rush yds | 35 | 40 | 0 |
| Kaden Feagin | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kaden Feagin | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 15 | 0 |
| Collin Dixon | WR · Rec | 3.7 | 2.7 | 5 |
| Collin Dixon | WR · Rec yds | 55 | 40 | 65 |
| Collin Dixon | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR · Rec | 6.3 | 6.7 | 12 |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR · Rec yds | 95 | 95 | 215 |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR · Rec TD | 0.8 | 0.9 | 4 |
| Bo Jackson | RB · Rush yds | 75 | 85 | 55 |
| Bo Jackson | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Bo Jackson | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Ja'Kobi Jackson | RB · Rush yds | 40 | 25 | 55 |
| Ja'Kobi Jackson | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0 | 1 |
| Ja'Kobi Jackson | RB · Rec yds | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Mississippi pass offense vs Florida pass defense — edge +267 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rush yds | 95 | 105 | DNP |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rush TD | 1.3 | 1.6 | DNP |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | DNP |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec | 2.8 | 1.3 | 5 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 15 | 45 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Luke Hasz | TE · Rec | 2.3 | 0.2 | 1 |
| Luke Hasz | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 0 | 10 |
| Luke Hasz | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Philo | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 185 | 195 |
| Aaron Philo | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Philo | QB · INT | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jadan Baugh | RB · Rush yds | 100 | 100 | 140 |
| Jadan Baugh | RB · Rush TD | 1 | 0.7 | 3 |
| Jadan Baugh | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 20 | 10 |
| Luke Harpring | TE · Rec | 2 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Luke Harpring | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 25 | 35 |
| Luke Harpring | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Iowa pass offense vs Michigan pass defense — edge -330 defense edge miss
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hank Brown | QB · Pass yds | 110 | 35 | 225 |
| Hank Brown | QB · Pass TD | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2 |
| Hank Brown | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0 |
| DJ Vonnahme | TE · Rec | 2.8 | 2.9 | 4 |
| DJ Vonnahme | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 45 | 45 |
| DJ Vonnahme | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Kamari Moulton | RB · Rush yds | 75 | 80 | 45 |
| Kamari Moulton | RB · Rush TD | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kamari Moulton | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Bryce Underwood | QB · Pass yds | 170 | 185 | 275 |
| Bryce Underwood | QB · Pass TD | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Bryce Underwood | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | 35 |
| Jordan Marshall | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 85 | 60 |
| Jordan Marshall | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Marshall | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| JJ Buchanan | WR · Rec | 4.2 | 2 | 5 |
| JJ Buchanan | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 35 | 130 |
| JJ Buchanan | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2 |
Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.