The preview exactly as we published it before kickoff — the unit mismatches and player production projections — now with the actual box score next to every number and a grade on each row. Nothing here was edited after the games kicked off. See the full season track record →
| Component | n | Our MAE | Naive MAE | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass yds | 14 | 91.30 | 88.01 | trails naive |
| Pass TD | 14 | 1.01 | 0.99 | trails naive |
| INT | 10 | 0.81 | 0.84 | beats naive |
| Rush yds | 12 | 26.41 | 25.10 | trails naive |
| Rush TD | 8 | 0.51 | 0.54 | beats naive |
| Rec | 20 | 1.81 | 2.12 | beats naive |
| Rec yds | 28 | 19.10 | 20.70 | beats naive |
| Rec TD | 20 | 0.41 | 0.37 | trails naive |
Biggest pre-game edge: Ohio St. pass offense vs Indiana pass defense — edge +308 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Sayin | QB · Pass yds | 255 | 260 | 235 |
| Julian Sayin | QB · Pass TD | 2 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Julian Sayin | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR · Rec | 6.7 | 6.7 | 4 |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR · Rec yds | 115 | 95 | 70 |
| Jeremiah Smith | WR · Rec TD | 1 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Bo Jackson | RB · Rush yds | 80 | 85 | 55 |
| Bo Jackson | RB · Rush TD | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Bo Jackson | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Hoover | QB · Pass yds | 230 | 290 | 295 |
| Josh Hoover | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Josh Hoover | QB · INT | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Charlie Becker | WR · Rec | 4.1 | 2.1 | 9 |
| Charlie Becker | WR · Rec yds | 70 | 40 | 165 |
| Charlie Becker | WR · Rec TD | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Nick Marsh | WR · Rec | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3 |
| Nick Marsh | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 55 | 55 |
| Nick Marsh | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Auburn pass offense vs Georgia pass defense — edge -178 defense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byrum Brown | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 265 | 150 |
| Byrum Brown | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Byrum Brown | QB · Rush yds | 70 | 85 | 115 |
| Keshaun Singleton | WR · Rec | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3 |
| Keshaun Singleton | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 75 | 45 |
| Keshaun Singleton | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Jake Johnson | TE · Rec | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2 |
| Jake Johnson | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 10 | 25 |
| Jake Johnson | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Gunner Stockton | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 205 | 270 |
| Gunner Stockton | QB · Pass TD | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 |
| Gunner Stockton | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2 |
| Lawson Luckie | TE · Rec | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3 |
| Lawson Luckie | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 10 | 40 |
| Lawson Luckie | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Elyiss Williams | TE · Rec | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Elyiss Williams | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 10 | 0 |
| Elyiss Williams | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Alabama pass offense vs Tennessee pass defense — edge +203 offense edge miss
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelon Russell | QB · Pass yds | 210 | 70 | 145 |
| Keelon Russell | QB · Pass TD | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Keelon Russell | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 10 | 5 |
| Kaleb Edwards | TE · Rec | 1.9 | 0.7 | 2 |
| Kaleb Edwards | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 10 | 10 |
| Kaleb Edwards | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Marshall Pritchett | TE · Rec | 2.3 | 0.5 | 6 |
| Marshall Pritchett | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 5 | 40 |
| Marshall Pritchett | TE · Rec TD | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Faizon Brandon | QB · Pass yds | 150 | — | DNP |
| Faizon Brandon | QB · Pass TD | 1.1 | — | DNP |
| Faizon Brandon | QB · INT | 0.6 | — | DNP |
| DeSean Bishop | RB · Rush yds | 90 | 85 | 160 |
| DeSean Bishop | RB · Rush TD | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2 |
| DeSean Bishop | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| DaSaahn Brame | TE · Rec | 2.3 | 0.7 | 3 |
| DaSaahn Brame | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 5 | 40 |
| DaSaahn Brame | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Michigan pass offense vs Penn State pass defense — edge -124 defense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Becht | QB · Pass yds | 205 | 215 | 265 |
| Rocco Becht | QB · Pass TD | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Rocco Becht | QB · INT | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2 |
| Benjamin Brahmer | TE · Rec | 2.7 | 3.1 | 4 |
| Benjamin Brahmer | TE · Rec yds | 30 | 35 | 25 |
| Benjamin Brahmer | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Andrew Rappleyea | TE · Rec | 2.7 | 2.5 | 7 |
| Andrew Rappleyea | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 20 | 35 |
| Andrew Rappleyea | TE · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Bryce Underwood | QB · Pass yds | 175 | 185 | 45 |
| Bryce Underwood | QB · Pass TD | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Bryce Underwood | QB · Rush yds | 25 | 30 | 10 |
| JJ Buchanan | WR · Rec | 4.4 | 2 | 3 |
| JJ Buchanan | WR · Rec yds | 75 | 35 | 35 |
| JJ Buchanan | WR · Rec TD | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Hogan Hansen | TE · Rec | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Hogan Hansen | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 20 | 30 |
| Hogan Hansen | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Mississippi pass offense vs Missouri pass defense — edge +218 offense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Simmons | QB · Pass yds | 180 | 95 | 340 |
| Austin Simmons | QB · Pass TD | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Austin Simmons | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Jamal Roberts | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 60 | 40 |
| Jamal Roberts | RB · Rush TD | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jamal Roberts | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Cayden Lee | WR · Rec | 4.9 | 2.9 | 5 |
| Cayden Lee | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 40 | 60 |
| Cayden Lee | WR · Rec TD | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB · Pass yds | 275 | 260 | 240 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB · Pass TD | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec | 3 | 1.3 | 4 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec yds | 35 | 15 | 35 |
| Caleb Odom | TE · Rec TD | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rush yds | 85 | 105 | 120 |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rush TD | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kewan Lacy | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 10 |
Biggest pre-game edge: Texas pass offense vs Florida pass defense — edge +168 offense edge miss
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Philo | QB · Pass yds | 225 | 185 | DNP |
| Aaron Philo | QB · Pass TD | 1.2 | 0.5 | DNP |
| Aaron Philo | QB · INT | 0.8 | 0.5 | DNP |
| Jadan Baugh | RB · Rush yds | 100 | 100 | 90 |
| Jadan Baugh | RB · Rush TD | 1 | 0.7 | 1 |
| Jadan Baugh | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 20 | 15 |
| Luke Harpring | TE · Rec | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Luke Harpring | TE · Rec yds | 20 | 25 | 5 |
| Luke Harpring | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arch Manning | QB · Pass yds | 235 | 245 | 175 |
| Arch Manning | QB · Pass TD | 1.8 | 2 | 1 |
| Arch Manning | QB · INT | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rush yds | 70 | 85 | 50 |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rush TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Hollywood Smothers | RB · Rec yds | 15 | 15 | 5 |
| Emaree Winston | TE · Rec | 2.1 | 0.3 | DNP |
| Emaree Winston | TE · Rec yds | 25 | 10 | DNP |
| Emaree Winston | TE · Rec TD | 0 | 0 | DNP |
Biggest pre-game edge: Florida St. rush offense vs Miami (Fla.) rush defense — edge -149 defense edge hit
| Player | Proj | Projected | Prior-yr avg | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Daniels | QB · Pass yds | 200 | 200 | 300 |
| Ashton Daniels | QB · Pass TD | 1 | 0.8 | 4 |
| Ashton Daniels | QB · Rush yds | 45 | 70 | 30 |
| Ousmane Kromah | RB · Rush yds | 55 | 35 | 45 |
| Ousmane Kromah | RB · Rush TD | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ousmane Kromah | RB · Rec yds | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Duce Robinson | WR · Rec | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5 |
| Duce Robinson | WR · Rec yds | 65 | 90 | 115 |
| Duce Robinson | WR · Rec TD | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2 |
| Darian Mensah | QB · Pass yds | 250 | 285 | 325 |
| Darian Mensah | QB · Pass TD | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3 |
| Darian Mensah | QB · INT | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB · Rush yds | 80 | 85 | 65 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB · Rush TD | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Mark Fletcher Jr. | RB · Rec yds | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Malachi Toney | WR · Rec | 6.6 | 6.8 | 11 |
| Malachi Toney | WR · Rec yds | 80 | 75 | 155 |
| Malachi Toney | WR · Rec TD | 0.8 | 0.6 | 2 |
Grades: green within 20% (counts: within half a unit), amber to 50% (one unit), red beyond or an inverted edge. ‘Prior-yr avg’ is the naive baseline — the player’s prior-season per-game average — shown so you can see the opponent adjustment earn its keep. Projections joined to actuals by player id and kickoff-date window; a blank actual means the game log has not landed yet (pending). Availability-adjusted rows are voided, never re-graded.